Beyond the 401

Data Shows the Future of Transit

June 2, 2025

Beyond the 401: Data Shows the Future of Transit in Northumberland-Peterborough South

June 2, 2025

This post is co-authored by Maxwell Groves, recent Green Party of Ontario Candidate for Northumberland-Peterborough South, and Pake Newell, PakePoint Analytics.

Building a thriving, livable Northumberland starts with understanding how our communities connect and move. That's why we joined forces with Maxwell Groves, representing the Green Party of Ontario in Northumberland-Peterborough South (now Northumberland-Clarke), leveraging the power of data analytics to explore local travel patterns. Our goal? To explore and champion sustainable transit strategies for residents and spark a community conversation about the future of transportation in our region.

The insights gleaned from sources like TomTom traffic data paint a compelling picture of daily life in Northumberland. More importantly, they highlight clear opportunities for positive change. We firmly believe that Northumberland deserves comprehensive, accessible transit. This data doesn't just support that belief, it helps show us the way!

Key Hubs: Data Insights & Visualizations

Regional Traffic Flows

It's no surprise that a significant volume of traffic flows between our communities along the busy 401 corridor. However, data also revealed a number of other common trips throughout the region.

Hover over lines for directional details and totals. Lines represent routes, with color, thickness, and opacity indicating combined traffic volume.

The Rice Lake Split

Sometimes, data uncovers fascinating local nuances that only residents might intuitively understand. A perfect example is the travel pattern between Brighton and Peterborough. Our analysis showed an almost even split in route choice: roughly half the traffic opts for routes north of Rice Lake, while the other half chooses to travel south.

Commutes to Peterborough and Durham Hubs

Beyond our immediate neighbors, many Northumberland County commuters head towards Peterborough and Durham. Peterborough, in particular, draws a substantial number of monthly trips from Northumberland communities (2,414 from Port Hope, 2,918 from Cobourg, and 2,297 from Brighton).

Interestingly, this volume of travel to Peterborough is nearly on par with trips to crucial transit hubs in the Durham region (1,256 to Oshawa Go Train, 3,666 to Whitby Go Train, and 4,960 to Downtown Oshawa/Oshawa Centre).

An Important Note on Our Data: These figures are based on analysis using TomTom data samples. While they represent significant trends and provide a strong directional understanding, they don't necessarily capture the total volume of all traffic.

These figures underscore the strong economic and social ties our towns and cities have with communities across the broader region. It’s clear that transit in the region isn’t just about connecting residents to larger hubs like Durham; it's critically about connecting communities within Northumberland to each other.

The Clear Opportunity: Simple, Effective Transit is Within Reach

What does all this data point to? A clear and exciting opportunity for simple, reliable bus services connecting key communities like Peterborough, Cobourg, Port Hope, and Brighton. These popular, well-defined routes mean that introducing or enhancing bus services could make a tremendous difference in the daily lives of our residents.

Such routes wouldn't just benefit the larger towns. They would also naturally serve to connect many smaller communities along the way, bringing them into the broader public transit network.

For communities across Northumberland, these targeted transit options would be a game-changer. Imagine the ease of visiting loved ones, getting to work, accessing essential services, or attending appointments—all while reducing our collective carbon footprint and traffic congestion. While connections to major hubs like Durham and Toronto remain important, focusing on these more easily connected regional destinations offers achievable, impactful solutions for NPS communities. This is particularly true when we consider strategic planning for potential future rail investments in the region.

Ready for Better Transit? Join the Conversation!

This data provides a roadmap. Now, it's time to discuss. How could transit make a difference for you, your family, and your community? Get in touch at maxwellgroves@gpo.ca.

Why This Collaboration Matters: Voices from the Project

"As a candidate and community advocate, having access to this kind of detailed analysis is crucial. It moves policy discussions from anecdotal evidence to fact-backed proposals. With this data, we can plan detailed routes, project costs and savings to the community, and champion effective solutions for a more connected and sustainable future for Eastern Ontario."

- Maxwell Groves

"I love this project because it really showcases the power of data storytelling. By really looking into the data and making them visually appealing and accessible, politicians, community leaders, and community members can all engage meaningfully to build the livable communities for the next generation."

- Pake Newell
ConsultingPoliticsStrategyTransitTraffic Analysis